A short excursion to the development of the phenomenon of wind helps to understand this fact. It blows because nature is basically looking for balance. In this case, it wants to compensate for the temperature difference between the hot tropics and the cold poles. Warm air flows from the equator to the pole caps, vice versa cold air flows from there towards the tropics and the winds are created. In winter, this temperature drop increases, as the inclination of the Earth’s axis as it gets closer to the poles means that less and less sunlight reaches the Earth. Around the equator, however, this effect is hardly present. Therefore, both the frequency and intensity of the wind increase during the cold season. ¹

Why there is more wind on the lake

From a smaller perspective, the same air movement takes place on the coastal areas and on the banks of inland lakes. During the day, the soil warms up faster than water. The air on land also warms up faster, rises and the cooler sea air flows on land - there is a wind on land. After sunset, the direction of flow reverses because the water stores heat longer than the land masses. Overnight, therefore, there is an off-shore wind.

This land-sea wind system is active around the clock, so the air in coastal areas is always in motion, including the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Combined with the flat landscape, this phenomenon means that northern German wind farms generate significantly more electricity than their inland counterparts², where the winds blow more irregularly and with less force because they are slowed down by the uneven ground surface. This also applies to installations at exposed altitudes, where the wind hits comparatively few obstacles.³

How does climate change affect the energy transition?

Since air temperature has a significant influence on the formation of the winch, the question of the effects of global warming on this system inevitably arises. As a result, the temperatures in the equatorial and polar regions will approximate each other on an annual average. There is a suspicion that less and weaker wind could blow as a result, which would have a negative impact on the yield of the wind farms.

However, the scientific community does not fully agree on the assessment of this problem. For example, 2021 was more of a slow year, while 2022 and 2023 were very windy years. For some researchers, the data basis for reading longer-term developments is too poor. However, computer studies and modelling suggest that there are only likely to be relatively small changes in average wind speed and thus in wind power production in Germany on an annual average.

However, the data suggests that the distribution of the occurring wind will shift over the course of the year. This means that there could be more summers in the future when many turbines don't even start up due to a lack of wind. This is likely to be offset by less wind energy through increasing productivity of photovoltaic systems. Moreover, the wind farms are expected to produce more electricity in the winters, as more and stronger air movement is expected.

This does not necessarily mean more storms or hurricanes that force the turbines to shut down due to possible damage. The opposite may even be the case. If the current development continues, stronger storm events are certainly possible, but they occur less frequently. So the times of forced downtime in wind farms could be reduced.⁴

Forecasts are tough, but without wind power it won't be possible

Whether all these assumptions, forecasts, calculations and models will ultimately prove to be correct will eventually show. Weather services usually specify only a few days in their forecasts. Climate research is also facing many uncertainties. It is therefore difficult to predict how both wind and electricity production will develop in the long term.

However, the figures for 2024 show that there is currently no way around wind energy to successfully complete the energy transition. During this period, it was once again the most important source of electricity in Germany, accounting for 33 percent of public electricity generation - outperforming coal. The fact that 2024 was a weaker wind year than 2023 did not stop it: The German electricity mix reached a new peak with a record share of renewable energies of 62.8 percent. In the medium term, wind energy seems to be on a very good path: In 2024, a total of 2,405 new onshore wind turbines with an output of 14,056 MW were approved in Germany - both unprecedented highs, which will lead to noticeably growing expansion in the coming years.⁵