Investing in renewable energy5 trends that will shape the market by 2030

Fifteen years ago, wind turbines and solar farms were symbols of a political promise, and today they supply the majority of public electricity in Germany. In 2025, the share of renewable energies in public net electricity generation was 57.1 percent.{{fn:footnote-a}} Vision has become infrastructure.

At the same time, their reputation as an investmentis changing. Clean energy ETFs and thematic equity funds have long been part of the fixed inventory of many custody accounts, and now renewable energies are also moving into the neighbourhood of real estate and gold. They become recognised tangible assets, backed by a real asset that continuously produces electricity and generates predictable cash flows.

The first funds prove this logic. klimaVest, for example, launched in 2020 as a German European Long-Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) for private investors and invested around 1.8 billion billion euros in investment capital in renewable energies in five years. We are proud of the track record: Each financial year since its inception, the fund ended up.¹

And yet the asset class is young. The rules of the game according to which yields are generated in this world are still being formed. In this article, you will learn about the five trends that will shape the market by 2030 and what investors should be aware of today. 

Trend 1: The promotional era is coming to an end, now marketing is the deciding factor 

Since 2000, the Renewable Energies Act (EEG) has guaranteed wind and solar farm operators a fixed price per kilowatt hour fed in for 20 years. The first of these plants are now reaching the end of the production window and must then place their electricity on the free market.

The law itself has also changed. For new, larger plants, the contract is currently awarded via tenders and the remuneration is no longer based on a fixed rate, but on the market price. This completely changes the logic of the asset class. Electricity must be actively marketed, and the spot market fluctuates on an hourly basis. Prices are the lowest when all solar parks supply at the same time.

“Where guaranteed revenues used to attract, spot market prices, weather data and network capacities now determine the revenue side,” analyses Timo Werner, fund manager at klimaVest. “Marketing green electricity is becoming more dynamic, but also more demanding.” This puts asset management at the heart of the decision as to whether a park is exploiting its potential or not. The competence profile includes precise yield forecasts for each individual plant, a detailed understanding of the local grid connections and their bottlenecks, the ability to react to price signals in the spot market in the short term and, last but not least, experience at the negotiation table with large power consumers.

What looks like more risk on the surface is an extra leeway for experienced asset managers. Dr. Nicole Arnold, member of the Management Board of Commerz Real, describes this as follows: "Marketing the generated electricity offers different approaches and thus also diversification potential. On the one hand, the electricity can be fed into the public grid. It is important whether the electricity is paid for at a fixed, state-guaranteed price or at fluctuating market prices. Another model is the conclusion of direct supply contracts with large customers, so-called power purchase agreements (PPAs)." The mix of these approaches determines whether a portfolio is stable or opportune and to what extent it becomes more independent of individual electricity markets. 

With these direct electricity supply contracts, an industrial customer buys electricity for 10 or 15 years at a fixed price directly from the producer. This brings back the predictability that the EEG has lost. However, large customers do not negotiate with one hundred small parks individually. They are looking for partners with volume and creditworthiness that deliver reliably and are trustworthy in the long term. Funds with large, broadly diversified portfolios negotiate on an equal footing with industry and generally secure better conditions than smaller players.

However, long-term predictability can also put pressure on returns if the price of electricity is below what could be achieved on the spot market in lucrative phases. For investors, this results in specific selection criteria for renewable energy investments, such as broadly diversified portfolios and a robust track record in electricity marketing. Those who bring both are more likely to turn the elimination of the feed-in tariff into a benefit. Those who do not have it will remain more exposed to the spot market with its cannibalisation effect.

With the end of the fixed feed-in tariff, the yield logic of wind and solar farms is shifting: From guaranteed security to opportunities that require competent marketing.

Trend Two: Hybridization and storage solutions optimise yields

Renewable energy follows the weather, not demand. This creates several problems:

• Network bottleneck: During hours when there is a lot of wind and a lot of sun supplying electricity at the same time, the grids are overloaded. Some of the plants need to be shut down. The power is lost before it can even be sold.
• Price drop during peak hours: If all solar parks produce at the same time, supply will exceed demand in the short term and electricity prices will fall on the market. The industry is talking about the cannibalisation effect, and revenues can even become negative.
• Gap in supply during low-frequency periods: If the wind is not blowing for days and the sun barely shines (so-called dark whisper), the plants produce too little. This also reduces returns. 

The industry is responding to these natural challenges with hybridisation and storage solutions.

Hybridisation bundles different types of generation or combines generation and storage. "Grid capacities can be utilised better and, above all, more evenly by combining different types of generation such as wind and photovoltaics at one connection point," explains Dr Nicole Arnold, Member of the Management Board of Commerz Real. "Another benefit is greater stability in the operation of long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs). Hybrid plants are also advantageous for the overall grid stability; in some cases, this is the only way to implement extensions."

Behind the effect lies a rather simple idea: The wind often blows when the sun is not shining. If you combine both at the same connection, you smooth out your feed-in profile.

Storage solutions address the problem from the other side. “Battery storage systems are the technological counterbalance to the increasingly volatile electricity market,” says Timo Werner, fund manager of klimaVest. "They buffer production and demand, react to changes in grid utilisation within seconds, and help market excess energy when it’s needed. Added to this is the possibility of generating additional revenue by providing flexibility and grid support." 

3. What are the benefits of investing in renewable energy?

Renewable energy is a future-proof asset class. Numerous investments are available here that are independent of the stock market and broadly diversified. Investors have the opportunity for future-oriented investments. Ready-to-use investments with stable cash flows can offer risk-adjusted returns, although, as with all investments, fluctuations in value are possible.

There are many benefits to investing in renewables. On the one hand, you are actively helping to combat climate change, because your investment supports future-proof technologies that cause hardly any CO₂ emissions.

In this way, you can help ensure that our grandchildren can still live and do business. On the other hand, investments in operational tangible assets with long-term purchase agreements are relatively stable and can generate predictable cash flows.

Some investors shy away from investing in renewable energies because they are afraid they don't understand the technology enough. But that would mean being able to build a car to be able to invest in an automotive manufacturer, or penetrating an oil extraction plant to invest money with an energy supplier.

None of this has been necessary so far – and the operation of renewable energies is not rocket science, as the previous section has shown. In addition, the technology has developed significantly and now functions reliably and cost-effectively.

Money has power. Investors can actively contribute to the energy transition with investments in ready-to-use energy plants and at the same time benefit from the income from electricity sales. 

Trend 3: Repowering as a key source of growth

Germany intends to increase installed onshore wind power to 115 gigawatts by 2030 - which would require double the expansion rate compared to 2025. However, the location factor is becoming an increasing bottleneck: The windiest areas in Germany have been built for a long time. What is left over is difficult to use, as social distancing, nature conservation and local resistance often extend permit procedures by years.

At the same time, the pioneering plants from the early years of the Renewable Energies Act (EEG) are reaching the end of their technical life cycle of around 20 years. About half of the installed onshore turbines in Germany are now over 15 years old.

“Now it’s time for repowering, i.e. replacing it with newer systems that are about three times more powerful on average than the old systems,” explains Dr. Nicole Arnold, who is moving into a new market phase.

Repowering potential thus increasingly becomes a competitive advantage: Beyond pure performance, there is a yield scissor between good and less good positions. And the best locations are the most predictable: “The average wind yield and solar radiation per year can be predicted very well and reliably in the long term at a particular location,” adds Dr Arnold.  

However, as lucrative as it sounds in theory, not every provider can easily manage repowering projects in practice. Today, modern onshore turbines reach up to 180 metres in hub height, and their blades are almost 90 metres long. Transporting such components is a logistical task in itself. Also, the area cuts of the original parks are often not sufficient for the larger generation, so lease agreements with landowners have to be renegotiated. Separate concepts are also needed for the dismantling and recycling of old plants. All of this requires additional capital - which is difficult to raise without a robust marketing strategy after the elimination of feed-in tariffs.

What does this mean for renewable energies as an investment? The new plants perform a lot, and their yields can be forecast particularly well at proven locations. In addition, there is increasing competition for suitable space, which further enhances established locations. However, whether an investment actually raises this potential depends on the asset management behind the product. It takes technical expertiseto operate plants efficiently for decades and modernise them at the right time, and commercial expertiseto market the generated electricity wisely. A sufficiently large fund volume also helps because it makes it possible to spread the funds across several locations and projects.

How can you invest in renewable energy?

7. Investments in renewable energy: What are your options?

The energy transition starts with wind turbines and solar farms. However, the fact that the electricity from these plants also has to come to the consumers easily falls into the background. But this is precisely where one of the biggest bottlenecks lies, because the German electricity grid was built for a different world: Few central power plants fed electricity into a one-way street at the end of which households and industrial operations were located.

This logic no longer applies. “Electricity grids must increasingly also absorb decentrally generated electricity at the connection point, for example, if houses are equipped with photovoltaic systems and feed the electricity into the grid,” explains Dr Nicole Arnold, Member of the Management Board of Commerz Real. Today, electricity flows in both directions and the grid has to support this conversion.

"On the one hand, we need the 'electricity motorways’ that direct the electricity from the wind turbines in northern Germany to the large industrial consumers in southern Germany. On the other hand, the middle and lower voltage levels also need to be expanded and converted in order to supply sufficient power to the many planned rapid charging stations or heat pumps, for example," says Dr Arnold. Both levels are currently bottleneck issues, both require massive investments. 

This also makes electricity grids interesting as an investment within a portfolio: “The regulatory framework ensures that grid operators achieve a calculable return on their invested capital regardless of the electricity price,” explains Timo Werner, fund manager of klimaVest. While wind and solar farms are exposed to the weather and the spot market, grids provide stable cash flows. As more and more sectors require more and more electricity, the need for investment remains high for decades. In this way, grids become the anchor of stability that a renewable energy strategy alone cannot provide on the generation side.

Investments

The opportunities to participate directly in renewable energy plants and companies are diverse and are no longer reserved for institutional investors. People often join forces on the ground to jointly finance citizen energy plants (CEP): a biogas plant in the village, solar panels on the roof of the local kindergarten or a rediscovered hydropower plant by the stream. Larger projects usually receive cross-regional support, e.g. via crowdinvesting platforms on the internet.

All these investments can be roughly broken down by company form or contract type, each of which entails different co-determination options and liability risks.

• eG: Here, you are a member of a cooperative. You purchase cooperative shares and co-finance renewable power plants. No matter how much you invest: every member of the cooperative has exactly one vote, which is why this form of organisation is regarded as particularly citizen-oriented and democratic. Depositors receive a proportionate share of the profits. In the agricultural sector, for example, investors invest in local biogas plants and found cooperatives for this purpose.
• GmbH & Co. KG: With this entity, you are a limited partner. Your liability is generally only tied to your contribution – not your private assets – and you therefore have little say.
• GbR: In a company under civil law, each shareholder is liable not only with his/her contribution, but also with his/her private assets. You should only invest in this form if the project is small and manageable – e.g. neighbours jointly co-financing a neighbour’s solar power system. Every shareholder has the same right to have a say here.
• Loans: You can participate in citizen energy systems indirectly by lending money to the company behind it – regardless of its legal form. Types of loans typically include: bearer bonds, bonds or subordinated loans. It is also possible to lose all your money here as there are no co-determination rights.

The benefit of a direct investment is that its performance is largely independent of stock market performance. The Renewable Energies Act (EEG) provides a certain degree of planning security.

The disadvantage is that the investment capital is tied up for several years. Due to possible miscalculations, there is the business risk of a total loss.

Savings deposits

Some banks offer savings products that finance renewable energies. Here, you invest your money with the bank for a fixed period (often five or ten years) at a fixed interest rate. This means that the bank invests in renewable energy projects, mostly within the region, e.g. as loans to citizen energy plants.

Savings deposits with names such as “climate savings certificates” offer a relatively high level of security due to the banks’ statutory deposit guarantee; a total loss is usually excluded here. However, interest rates are comparatively low, funds are tied up for a long time and there are no co-determination rights.

8. What should I look out for when investing in renewable energy?

By investing in renewable energy, you can contribute to climate change mitigation by helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and conserve fossil resources. But what is the best way to do this and what needs to be taken into account when selecting products? Some questions worth finding the answers to can be found below.

Several criteria play a role in the selection: 

• Proximity to tangible assets: How close investors want to be to the actual tangible asset.
• Diversification: How much diversification can be achieved across a single investment.
• Bandwidth: Whether the investment covers just one technology or the entire energy transition from wind and solar farms to storage and grids.
• Transparency: How understandable the underlying portfolio is.
• Investment horizon: Which bond matches your own life plan and strategy. 

The larger the share of this asset class in the overall portfolio, the more important diversification and quality of asset management become over pure availability.

Trend 5: ELTIFs on the way from tip to mainstream

Investments in tangible assets in renewable energies were long considered too complicated and were reserved for institutional investors, while private investors remained denied direct access. However, with the ELTIF (European Long-Term Investment Fund), the EU has created a vehicle within alternative investment funds (AIFs), which is often described in the industry as "democratisation of private markets". Following a reform, this fund type is now gaining considerable momentum.

At the end of 2025, there were 268 ELTIFs across Europe, with 113 new issues added in that year alone. Assets under management amounted to around 34 billion euros, well over half of the previous year’s figure. Germany is one of the most dynamic markets: Investment volume of 4.4 billion euros, up 57 percent compared to 2024 and the second largest investment market in Europe after France.²

A German special feature is also the focus of investment. While private debt is the largest segment across Europe, infrastructure funds dominate here as ELTIFs with around 60 percent, including renewable energies as one of the central pillars. A further 20 to 30 percent volume growth is expected for 2026, with a doubling to 70 to 80 billion euros by the end of 2028.²

As much as growth speaks for the asset class, it makes the market confused. In March 2026, Scope expressly warned of a “reputational risk from inexperienced providers”.{{fn:footnote-g}} The fund labels also often provide little information about the content. In April 2026, the Stiftung Warentest wrote: “If the ELTIF prospectus states 'Multi Asset', everything from private equity to renewable energies can be hidden behind it.”³

For investors, this shifts the selection criterion. The ELTIF label alone says less about the quality of an investment today than it did two years ago. What counts is the substance behind it: tangible asset management expertise, transparency and quality of the portfolio, breadth of diversification and a robust track record across several market phases.