A year of setting the course is behind us. If at the beginning of 2025 political uncertainties - from the US elections to the early Bundestag election - had kept the markets in breath, we will start 2026 with significantly more clarity. The new framework conditions are in place, but the momentum is increasing rather than decreasing. Before we analyse which topics will shape the coming months, it is worth taking a look at our forecasts for the previous year: What is the truth? Where were there deviations?
Retrospective: Our forecasts for 2025 at a glance
Energy policy remained, as expected, a central debate topic. As forecast, the new government confirmed its course towards the energy transition and laid a strong foundation with the special fund for infrastructure and climate neutrality: The investment package of around 500 billion euros is specifically strengthening grid expansion, storage solutions and the expansion of renewable energies as a whole.1
Our forecast of a new record level for renewables has also come true. Unexpectedly, weak weather conditions in this country led to lower wind power yields, while photovoltaics set new records and for the first time exceeded the proportion of lignite in the electricity mix.2
Regardless of the weather-related yield weakness, the pace of expansion in wind energy has accelerated significantly. 2025 was the second strongest year for the expansion of onshore wind power in Germany: The newly installed capacity increased by more than 50 percent compared to the previous year. A total of 958 new wind turbines with an output of 5.2 gigawatts were put into operation, with net additions amounting to around 4.6 gigawatts after decommissioning. The dynamics in approvals are particularly evident: A new record was reached with around 3,300 approved applications and 20.8 gigawatts of approved power: an increase of almost 50 percent compared to the previous year. 3
In our outlook for 2025, we talked about the “year of the ELTIF” and expressed optimism about the then forecast of around 40 new funds over the course of the year. The actual development has significantly exceeded these expectations: 82 new ELTIFs were launched in the first three quarters alone.4
Trends for 2026: From system-wide electrification to ELTIFs
For the year 2026, we see two central pillars: On the one hand, the new dimension of electrification (characterised by sector coupling, grid expansion and storage) and, on the other, the democratisation of private markets.
