Loading component...

The “fossil trap”: Cause of structural dependencies

Ukraine, Venezuela, Middle East: The geopolitical conflicts of recent years have repeatedly made us realise how risky the dependence on fossil fuels is for economic stability. As oil and gas are traded globally and transported through Namdelöhre like the Hormus Road, crisis sources can destabilise global supply. In Germany, around 78 percent of energy consumption is still based on oil and gas. Only a small part - around 20 percent of German energy consumption - is attributable to electricity1, whose share from renewable energies is now just over 50 percent2. The consistent expansion of these sources and the electrification of industry and transport are therefore the decisive levers for greater independence.

Impact on capital markets and klimaVest

Geopolitical tensions are also quickly felt on the capital markets. Especially in markets such as Germany, which are heavily dependent on oil and gas imports, they can quickly put pressure on security of supply. Equity markets, especially in energy-intensive industries, often react with higher volatility and price losses in such phases. Investors are understandably more cautious in this market environment.

As a fund that invests in renewable energies and infrastructure, klimaVest is structurally positioned differently. This resilient positioning is mainly due to the fund’s broad diversification:

  • Versatile power generation portfolio: Revenue flows diversified through state-regulated feed-in tariffs, long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and spot market sales. This can stabilise the earnings base even in volatile times.
  • Regional diversification: Geographically, klimaVest’s portfolio is also broadly positioned with assets in 6 (excluding Luxembourg) EU countries at a total of 43 locations. In the long term, the fund strategy envisages an even more diversified geographical distribution across economically stable locations in Europe. Construction started in the second half of 2025 for several large photovoltaic projects, including in Spain and southern Sweden
  • Technology mix: The portfolio focuses on a mix of wind power, photovoltaics and grid infrastructure. 

Further development of gas and electricity prices

Gas plays a different role in the electricity mixes of the countries in which klimaVest invests. As a result of the crisis, forward market prices for gas and electricity have increased. For the years 2026 and 2027, we are therefore currently assuming more attractive pricing conditions for the sale of electricity. The share of merchant assets in the portfolio offers the opportunity to participate in such an upward movement in electricity prices.

We do not currently see a resilient change in long-term electricity price expectations beyond 2027; from today’s perspective, we expect a normalisation from 2028 onwards. However, we are keeping a close eye on the market in order to take advantage of possible opportunities to secure long-term electricity purchase agreements. 

Loading component...

1https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/energie/energie-fossile-falle-der-iran-krieg-offenbart-deutschlands-gefaehrliche-abhaengigkeit-01/100202705.html

2https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/Die_Energieversorgung_2025_FINAL_2025_12_17_1.pdf