Fifteen years ago, wind turbines and solar farms were symbols of a political promise, and today they supply the majority of public electricity in Germany. In 2025, the share of renewable energies in public net electricity generation was 57.1 percent.{{fn:footnote-a}} Vision has become infrastructure.

At the same time, their reputation as an investmentis changing. Clean energy ETFs and thematic equity funds have long been part of the fixed inventory of many custody accounts, and now renewable energies are also moving into the neighbourhood of real estate and gold. They become recognised tangible assets, backed by a real asset that continuously produces electricity and generates predictable cash flows.

The first funds prove this logic. klimaVest, for example, launched in 2020 as a German European Long-Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) for private investors and invested around 1.6 billion billion euros in investment capital in renewable energies in five years. We are proud of the track record: Each financial year since its inception, the fund ended up.¹

And yet the asset class is young. The rules of the game according to which yields are generated in this world are still being formed. In this article, you will learn about the five trends that will shape the market by 2030 and what investors should be aware of today. 

Trend 1: The promotional era is coming to an end, now marketing is the deciding factor 

Since 2000, the Renewable Energies Act (EEG) has guaranteed wind and solar farm operators a fixed price per kilowatt hour fed in for 20 years. The first of these plants are now reaching the end of the production window and must then place their electricity on the free market.

The law itself has also changed. For new, larger plants, the contract is currently awarded via tenders and the remuneration is no longer based on a fixed rate, but on the market price. This completely changes the logic of the asset class. Electricity must be actively marketed, and the spot market fluctuates on an hourly basis. Prices are the lowest when all solar parks supply at the same time.

“Where guaranteed revenues used to attract, spot market prices, weather data and network capacities now determine the revenue side,” analyses Timo Werner, fund manager at klimaVest. “Marketing green electricity is becoming more dynamic, but also more demanding.” This puts asset management at the heart of the decision as to whether a park is exploiting its potential or not. The competence profile includes precise yield forecasts for each individual plant, a detailed understanding of the local grid connections and their bottlenecks, the ability to react to price signals in the spot market in the short term and, last but not least, experience at the negotiation table with large power consumers.

What looks like more risk on the surface is an extra leeway for experienced asset managers. Dr. Nicole Arnold, member of the Management Board of Commerz Real, describes this as follows: "Marketing the generated electricity offers different approaches and thus also diversification potential. On the one hand, the electricity can be fed into the public grid. It is important whether the electricity is paid for at a fixed, state-guaranteed price or at fluctuating market prices. Another model is the conclusion of direct supply contracts with large customers, so-called power purchase agreements (PPAs)." The mix of these approaches determines whether a portfolio is stable or opportune and to what extent it becomes more independent of individual electricity markets. 

With these direct electricity supply contracts, an industrial customer buys electricity for 10 or 15 years at a fixed price directly from the producer. This brings back the predictability that the EEG has lost. However, large customers do not negotiate with one hundred small parks individually. They are looking for partners with volume and creditworthiness that deliver reliably and are trustworthy in the long term. Funds with large, broadly diversified portfolios negotiate on an equal footing with industry and generally secure better conditions than smaller players.

However, long-term predictability can also put pressure on returns if the price of electricity is below what could be achieved on the spot market in lucrative phases. For investors, this results in specific selection criteria for renewable energy investments, such as broadly diversified portfolios and a robust track record in electricity marketing. Those who bring both are more likely to turn the elimination of the feed-in tariff into a benefit. Those who do not have it will remain more exposed to the spot market with its cannibalisation effect.

With the end of the fixed feed-in tariff, the yield logic of wind and solar farms is shifting: From guaranteed security to opportunities that require competent marketing.

How can you invest in renewable energy?

8. What should I look out for when investing in renewable energy?

By investing in renewable energy, you can contribute to climate change mitigation by helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and conserve fossil resources. But what is the best way to do this and what needs to be taken into account when selecting products? Some questions worth finding the answers to can be found below.